But even though the math says it's virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. And why not? Also, being "in action" can make a dull late-afternoon game Buffalo vs. Oakland comes to mind seem like the Super Bowl. But that doesn't mean you have to bet like a "square" and throw away your hard-earned money. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.
If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned.
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. Money Management - "This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected," says Morey "Doc" Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.
Shop For Numbers - "Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number," Moseman explains. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books.
These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines. Consider Underdogs - "In the long-run, it's easier to win betting on the underdog," Konik says. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued - except by the sharps.
Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd. Locks Don't Exist - "Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small," Gordon says. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game.
The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them. Bet at the Right Time - "The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early," Moseman says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites.
If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb. Avoid Chasing Bets - "Don't do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day," cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses.
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo. But, when you're struggling, that's when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. As a bettor, look out for the games that see a line move against the majority of bets or money.
If you find one, look into betting on the lesser bet side. Certain teams around the league are viewed as unbeatable when playing at home. They even have a dominant ATS record, covering Since , Seattle is SU at home. This is not to suggest that all home teams cover the spread a majority of the time. Oddsmakers build in home-field advantage automatically when making their lines. However, if one digs even deeper they are likely to find teams with more built-in advantages.
Perhaps an east coast team has an advantage by playing at home against a west coast team at ET. Is one team rested off a bye week compared to their opponent? Is a team in the midst of a grueling three-game road trip? All of these possible scheduling advantages should be taken into consideration when placing a bet.
Oddsmakers are some of the smartest people out there. In addition, NFL coaches are smart people as well. One of the many reasons the NFL is so popular is its unpredictability, which is certainly true when it comes to betting. Many squares cannot help themselves but bet with their hearts over their heads. They have too much pride as fans to admit that their team is not the right side in certain weeks.
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