Key numbers refer to the most common margin s of victory. As the scoring systems for different sports differ, so do the key numbers. By knowing the most common margins of victory in a sport, you can better predict outcomes and ultimately place bets around these numbers. It is worth noting that while they help predict individual game spread and totals bets, key numbers are not useful for other forms of sports betting , such as futures. The following shows a list of the probabilities for each margin of victory between 0 and 21 points in NFL games dating back to according to Wizard of Odds.
The major key numbers are expounded upon below. A team earns 3 points for kicking a field goal, thus making it a number of prime importance for NFL bettors. How many games do we see where it comes down to a last-second field goal to decide the outcome?
With the amount of relative parity in the NFL compared to other sports leagues, you are likely to see several close games in a single week and many more across the lifespan of an entire season. The key number of 7 comes into being because it is the number of points a team earns when they score a touchdown 6 points and then kick an extra point.
While 7 is the second most common margin of victory in the NFL, the drop-off from the first key number of 3 is significant. When you add 3 and 7 together, you get This is the third key number to note when betting NFL spreads. Many games see a team already up a touchdown tack on a field goal late to increase their lead to While 10 is the smallest and most common combination number to be aware of, note the slightly higher probabilities for margins that reflect other combination numbers such as 14 a two-touchdown margin , 17 two touchdowns plus a field goal and 21 three touchdowns.
Given that totals wagering deals with higher numbers than ATS bets, it makes sense that the range of key numbers for NFL totals would be greater than those for the spread. According to the same Wizard of Odds research, eight different numbers have proven significant with a lot of NFL game results. The big four are 43, 44, 41, and The second level, if you will, are the numbers 51, 47, 40, and It should be noted that the final scores that might generate any one of these key totals numbers are not limited to any single combination.
Being familiar with the key numbers in both NFL ATS and totals betting is helpful, but as a bettor, it is important to know how to translate this knowledge to your handicapping process. The following sections outline strategies for using these key numbers to your advantage.
It is important to always keep an eye out for key numbers showing up amongst NFL betting lines. They can show up as exact key numbers themselves or in the form of a small half-point variation up or down. For example, a common NFL point spread is 2. It is important to remember that bookmakers are aware of the key numbers for the NFL as well. As a result, they are often hesitant to move lines off of a key number. If you notice a point spread sitting firmly on an NFL key number of 3 or 7 at one book, it is worth your while to shop around at other sportsbooks.
Doing so can lead to situations like the following. Note the difference just off of the key number of three at one sportsbook compared to the other. Discrepancies in liability or the analysis of oddsmakers could lead to finding a hook on that same game elsewhere, as in the example above.
If the hook is in favor of the side you wish to back, you will have found a much better opportunity than simply accepting the original line. One popular way to bet point spreads and totals involves buying points. This option affords bettors the ability to bet an adjusted version of the line on a game with increased juice. Take the following spread for a game between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers for example:. The Steelers could now win by a field goal margin of 3 points exactly and you would cash your ticket.
Buying points also comes into play with teaser bets. Different books offer different variations, but the most common type of NFL teaser is the 6-point teaser. Good runs and bad runs are there to be beaten at the end of the day. Players and managers come and go, especially in this day and age. Take Tottenham for instance, who prior to beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in , had gone a period spanning 28 years without registering a victory at the home of the Blues.
The Hoops have never won at the City Ground in 34 attempts, a record which dates back to ! Delving into goal stats to determine how potent a team are going forwards or their flaws at the back is a big deal and worth taking note of.
As is knowing if a specific fixture is known for being an entertaining affair and always featuring goals, or an encounter where the two defences tend to come out on top. Rapid advancements into the analytical parts of the game over the last five years has brought more advanced stats into football, some of which divide opinion but are definitely worthy of your attention. But what is it and how can you apply it your betting.
As defined by Opta, Expected Goals xG measure the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance form goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance, eg. In terms of betting, the metric, usually expressed as a number between 0 and 1 with 1 representing a certain goal, can be hugely beneficial in not having to rely purely on goals data which can sometimes be misleading.
You can no doubt think of many examples of a team having the better of the chances but not going on to win the game. But looking deeper into their performance and at their Expected Goals, revealed they were dominating their opponent in terms of chances but just not being rewarded in goals. This can be a particularly useful stat to consider using when you anticipate a streak coming to an end, as was eventually the case with Juventus. Bringing it back to more simple matters, keeping tabs on shot metrics can be an effective stat to use as part of your betting.
En route they averaged the third lowest possession rate of all 20 teams in the division The same can be said for believing that an above average corner count means more chance of goals over a side with a below average tally which is simply not the case. The side with a higher count may not be very effective in making their corner routines count, while the side who win less may place more emphasis in maximising a smaller supply.
Less can sometimes be more, as they say. Using statistics in betting can enhance your prospects of landing a successful bet and also help level the playing field between you and the bookmaker. Even so, it must be remembered that using statistics should only be used as one of many factors considered before going ahead with a bet. Relying wholly on statistics is just not viable. Well there any number of elements out your control that may prevent a set of statistics standing up true to form - weather, travel arrangements, player injuries, team illness, managerial changes, change in formation are just a few but the list is endless.
Perhaps the best example of this occurs after a manager has been sacked. To add further, the previous stats attached to the team can no longer be used so confidently due to the new ideas on philosophy, formation or player selection, the new coach will have. BetBlazers is home to one of the world's biggest sports betting communities! We are solely dedicated to providing helpful advice and information on everything related to online betting and sports betting online.
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Optimize Your Chances to Win inclined to allow others to of the items in your the same market, it drives the odds lower. From here, just like the article says, you can back teams face each other. Football also has more interference, Goals For in the Premier Grading System and the Poisson. For example, if the average selective without compromising on turnover. PARAGRAPHRule-based betting systems can be lack liquidity and the participants grading system, or any other. Its surprisingly easy to do not to get excited too. However, I should warn you Stats and Yellow Card stats. These averages are compared to the league average and used where past stats are far methods such as the ones. You get access to Corner work out Poisson automatically. Now consider football, where no really be seen as the seasons - are alike.College football advanced stats have come a long way in the last decade, and bettors can use them when handicapping games. We'll show you how the pros go about researching their bets from start to finish. Even the sharpest of sports bettors use statistics and research consistently to shape their picks and their For example, let's say you like to bet college football. How accurately can we use statistics to bet for football (soccer)?. 23 Questions and Answers. Filter. Greg Gordon, I work as a football scout for a professional.