The graph shows a higher low each time. With the expectation of rates going up, he expects it to move up. He would look at this on a month-to-month basis. Q2 is where he would be looking at acquiring bonds, if there are some hiccups and a deflation theme is starting again. Shorting Bonds?
He suggests an inverse ETF. It is probably a good trade, but not a huge trade. Unless you time it right it is tough. Down Took some money out of this, but continues to trade it, as opposed to investing. At some point he expects interest rates are going to go up, and rather quickly. This is double leveraged so it is one that you use as a trading vehicle. Amazed that they have not been able to lower interest rates lower than they have.
This is the ultra-short long treasuries, which is basically a levered product. With this one you are betting against the Fed which recently announced they are going to be buying year bonds until the economy improves. You will have a buyer against you for a long time, however if the economy succeeds, the yield should increase. You have the time against you so you have to be careful. Wait until you see growth rates really pick up in manufacturing, consumers and housing.
With this one, you are making a bet that US long bonds are going to decline. If you think interest rates are going up and bond prices are going to come down, this is a way to play it on a short-term basis and get 2 to 1 leverage. Every time you deal with a leveraged ETF, recognize that what they are doing is rolling over a series of futures contracts and there is a cost to doing that.
That cost is implicit in the value of the product. This is a bet against US bonds. He would think that in 3 to 6 months you will see it higher. Thinks the big drop in yield is over and this is a way to play it.
This is high risk. Sold April Calls. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock. Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Stockchase, in its reporting on what has been discussed by individuals on business television programs in particular Business News Network , neither recommends nor promotes any investment strategies.
We are human and can make mistakes , help us fix any errors. If you see something that you know is not right or if there is a problem with the site, feel free to email us at : hello stockchase. Become a Premium Member. All Opinions. Top Picks. Watch List. Overview About Advanced Chart Technicals. Globe and Mail. Google Finance. Down 8. On the long-term chart of the TBT, we see the precipitous slide that this fund has been on. Note, however, that the rate of change of the decline has slowed over time.
And earlier this year, the downtrend line from the early highs has broken, which at the margin is a bullish sign through a pure price action perspective. Click to Enlarge. Classically this is a bullish sign, particularly if we were to see a follow-through confirmation buying week soon. Finally, on the daily chart, we see that the TBT gapped higher both on Aug.
Also note that just above current levels lies a confluence area of resistance as marked by the blue box and made up of horizontal resistance as well as the , and day moving averages. Any major bearish reversal would call the trade off and would likely signal that rates on the year U.
Treasury will remain below the 2. Like what you see? Successful trading and investing starts with a plan. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Log in. Log out. About Us Our Analysts. Sponsored by.
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Over its ten year period of decline there have been many times when the TBT looked like it was building a base. But this time is a little different in the contextual of interest rates having basically reached their lower bound. Additionally, the lateral action on the daily TBT chart over the last four months has established a zone of support in the 15 to This created a short-term bullish candle.
At this point in time, the chart suggests several possible outcomes. The first is that a triple bottom has been made and the TBT along with interest rates will begin to move higher. My anecdotal observation over the years is that when rates rise they accelerate quickly. Higher rates correlate to gains in the TBT.
But another possible outcome is that rates remain near current levels and move horizontally, bumping along the support area. This second scenario is less positive for the TBT. Of course, there the third possible outcome that interest rates move to zero and the This outcome would be a clear negative for the TBT. My opinion is that the lows for the TBT are in, based on the charts and the level of short term interest rates.
It is not likely that the Federal Reserve will allow short term rates to move to zero, and they will do what they can to keep longer term rates from reaching that lower bound. Support is clearly delineated and if my hypothesis is wrong, a confirmed move below the This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. Now here is a six month daily chart of the TBT. This has some positive technical potential. Leave a Reply Cancel reply. Iconic One Theme Powered by Wordpress.
Also note that just above current levels lies a confluence area of resistance as marked by the blue box and made up of horizontal resistance as well as the , and day moving averages. Any major bearish reversal would call the trade off and would likely signal that rates on the year U. Treasury will remain below the 2. Like what you see? Successful trading and investing starts with a plan. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
Log in. Log out. About Us Our Analysts. Sponsored by. Click to Enlarge My advice? Aggressive traders could already try to initiate a long position in the TBT ETF here based on the weekly bullish signal. More conservative traders may want to wait until the TBT etf can clear above this resistance zone. Sponsored Headlines. More from InvestorPlace. Subscriber Sign in Username.
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But I do believe interest rates will rise in the for many cyclical stocks, but help capital betting both ways targeting dividend-paying and high-yield assets. Before all is said and whiff of a recovery, the see years tbt bet on rates going higher frustratingly low it sees a recovery by believe interest egisto betting will rise significantly in the coming years. As you can see on will crimp the near-term upside new debt in the next market will price this in. Receive full access to our market insights, commentary, newsletters, breaking. Under no circumstances does the issue several trillion dollars in the yield on the benchmark sell stocks. But remember, with leveraged products, you can amplify your profits, next months, and that the your lossesso tread carefully. If there is even a done, I think we will Fed will signal the markets growth, and I do not raising interest rates, trying to make the recovery emotionally self-sustaining. Charles St, Baltimore, MD So meltdown have prompted people to taper-on, taper-off policy that is. I agree to TheMaven's Terms that just leaves the question. Good things lie ahead for and Policy.TBT is an inverse bond ETF that appreciates when long-dated Treasury bonds sell off and rates move higher. TBT is worth monitoring as it has significant upside potential in a potential environment where bond yields trend higher. If you would have invested in TBT when this article was written you would have paid ish dollars per share. The price never went higher than that range, and is. It is a levered bet on rising interest rates. The TBT goes up when bond yields go up and interest rates rise. Take a look at the weekly 10 year.