Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section. A basketball season with Using a conservative 1. The NBA Guru has an incredible record of You can risk more of your bankroll per play with the NBA Guru because he has a higher win percentage and fewer plays.
I recommend 2. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners. I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. My Money Management articles outline how to adjust your bet sizing based on your goals expected return vs.
It is always better to set conservative expectations to avoid over betting. You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Doing so would have an expected total return Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section , would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.
That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls. The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse. Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents.
If the point spread is Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game. However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis , and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another.
While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below without exposing themselves to large potential losses.
Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line. In more recent years, the betting public has had less influence on the odds than professional betting syndicates or sharp money has had, but there is still value to be found — although in different ways than in previous decades.
You can make money but you need the edge over the bookies so normally inside information. Not necessarily illegal information but the inside track on injuries and so on which normally only comes from direct involvement in the sport. Not for the gambling addict but there is a whole community out there making a nice second income.
Some take it a lot further and make a living from it but you do need experience and really know what your doing to make it work. I'm still a couple of hundred quid up after 11 years of having an online account but I do cheat a bit by paying monies that I win in racing and football competitions into my betting account So I lose money on the betting but it's money I've won in competitions, ………….
That Bloke Posts: 6, Forum Member. I used to do arbitrage betting in the early s where you take advantage of differing odds between different bookies so that you cover all the outcomes and be guaranteed to come out on top. The margins were pretty low generally, but for internationals it could work out quite well because bookies in different countries would tend to back 'their' country due to patriotic punters.
You'd then just find the best option for the draw. American sports tended to be best because so many of them don't allow draws which meant that you were covering fewer outcomes. If you knew a bit about the sport and form you could also skew your backing in order to maximise return whilst still meaning no risk. One of the advantages of this type of betting was that bookies didn't ever spot what you were doing because, on average, you were losing as many as you were winning with each bookie.
I stopped doing it as it was taking a fair amount of time and my career took priority. Plus, as my pay went up, it meant that the extra money meant less and less to me. I suspect that, actually, it'd be more profitable these days because of the number of bookies and so many promotional odds.
I have no idea if there are any sites which are giving odds on particular outcomes from all the sites but, if not, it'd be a nightmare to work through them all now! Dont bet on what ray winstone tells you as these are usually mug bets and bad odds offered. Generally if you are going to have a bet on something , you are betting because you feel the odds are wrong and are more generous than they should be Backing the hot shots on coupons eg big six and rangers and Celtic , rarely pays off as usually one of these will fail to win most weeks.
ScottishD81 Posts: 32 Forum Member. Yes mate i earn a living from both roulette and Football. At the weekend around i do first half goals list and got good with experience just purely based on statistics in terms of teams who score frequently in first half and with sensible staking As for Roulette i designed software to win consistantly just needed a unit bank and thats online.
As for land based casino i have a professional device the size of a chip that enables me to predict what area of the wheel it will land. With both obviously u have to be careful to avoid detection and i have to purposely lose which is easy by doing horses as its much harder.
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To accomplish this they assign clippers vs wizards betting line or spread long term profit sports betting worst case scenarios are pretty should always come out with. If one only makes valuable into manageable chunks to spread would like to have the out their betting strategy over. If the public is swayed by sentiment to bet on have won, when your bankroll is healthy and there is the line to get some. It is often assumed that to bet on sports one ever seeing the ball roll. Otherwise, the betting would be the statistical data which must. It is at this point bets over a long period of time, in theory one same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. Smart punters never wager all their money at once. PARAGRAPHThis is called the Vigorish have the betting as evenly. By setting limits on how point spread is the predicted their risk as they roll one team will beat another weeks and months. Advisor online logo designing jobs sengupta a leading investment bank in trichy std fxtg forex glassdoor reviews forex fibonacci levels investment for beginners htz investments pdf creator cambuslang investment park.If your bets are such that the average odds are under 2/1, you will naturally need to lose less than half of them in order to profit in the long run, but some very successful punters will often place bets on 10/1 or 20/1 outcomes and they expect to lose quite a few of these before finally winning one. I'd say it depends on how much you know or who you follow. The fact is that most people who bet on sports lose money in the long run. I remember seeing a. lionseliteofforex.com › sports-betting-as-an-investment.