matched betting guide and spreadsheet formulas

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Matched betting guide and spreadsheet formulas

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I'm going to be focusing on two kinds of bet: qualifying bets, which are usually known as just bets, and free bets, where you don't lose anything if your back bet loses. I'm also going to ignore rounding; let's just pretend that the sterling is infinitely divisible. These are three parameters for each of a pair of back and lay bets.

This may seem strange, but it's the convention used. So for a qualifying bet which is just a regular bet, outside the context of matched betting , we have:. And now we can say that a matched bet is simply a paired bet, where your profit is the same in either case.

I won't need to talk about simple paired bets from now on; all bets are matched. When I talk about a "free bet" or "qualifying bet", those are matched bets too. Incidentally, the six prameters are over-determined. For a qualifying bet, this gives. In other words, the effect of lay commission is to decrease the effective lay odds in the most natural way. It would be nice if this happened in other contexts too, but unfortunately I haven't come across it.

Next, we'll want to know how much profit we make. The sets of contours look superficially similar, but they're generally steeper for a free bet, and they get cut off on the bottom edge instead of the left edge. This gives us. These are slightly more distinct. If so, that suggests you might want to be looking for different sorts of bets at each stage. It is so, and we'll make it more precise later.

This isn't particularly useful to compare bets: you place qualifying bets to get free bets, and you place free bets to get money, and if you're doing pure matched betting, I don't think you'll ever be asking yourself should I place this bet free or as a qualifier? Still, the difference is. This is another suggestion that you should be looking at different sorts of bets for your qualifiers and your free bets.

One more thing is important when making a matched bet: lay liability. This is how much you stand to lose on the exchange where you make your lay bet. It's only important for boring real-world reasons like liquidity and the possibility of doing something stupid, but those are still important. You need to have this much money in your account at the exchange, which means you need to be able to spare it from your bank account for a week or so.

Low-liability bets are also safer if something goes wrong, which makes them a good choice for early dabblers in matched betting. If the graphs were extended further, as they stretch upwards the lines would become ever more vertical, but they'd always stay separate. Matched bet calculators aren't hard to find, and what I've given so far is nothing that they can't do for you. But they don't tell you everything you might want to know. Let's look at a bet, and see how we might find a better bet.

Since the two types have different behaviours, we'll treat them separately. For a free bet, that means we want to maximise the term. This tells us a few things. The first is that we want high back odds and low lay odds. We already knew that, and it's not very helpful; we expect back and lay odds to more-or-less rise and fall together.

It also tells us that adding a constant to both odds will increase profit; odds of 5 and 6 will be better than odds of 4 and 5. This is a useful thing to know, that matched bet calculators don't tell you. Such bets are somewhat rare in my experience, and typically have high spread. We can go more general. The curve divides bet-space into two regions, so that it's easy to see whether a bet gives more or less than this amount of profit. Earlier we saw this level curve graphically, for certain specific profits.

Now we find the explicit formula for the curve, which I secretly already used to draw the graphs. For a qualifying bet, we can't quite do the same thing. This doesn't work the same as the equivalent term for a free bet. But it's mathematically significant. So the approach we used for a free bet doesn't work on a qualifying bet. Unfortunately, I think this still isn't as good as what we got for a free bet, for three reasons. In practice, I expect the positive test will almost alway be inconclusive, meaning you still need to do the more difficult check on every bet.

I haven't done enough betting myself, while writing this, to say from experience. My workflow is to find a plausible-looking back bet and then see how it would be matched. With a free bet, I can run the easy test without looking for the match. For a qualifying bet, I need to find both sides of the bet before I can run the easy test. Qualifying bets often must be placed at a minimum odds on the back side in order to count. That typically rules out the lowest-spread bets see below digression.

Still, this is what we have. That may not be clear on this image, but it's easy to see algrebraically. On the back side you have a chance of losing money, but no way to win it; on the lay side you have a chance of winning money, but no way to lose it.

In particular, if the back bet wins, you make no profit or loss on either bet, so commission is irrelevant. And so the lay stake is calibrated for your lay winnings, after commission, to cancel out your back loss. But if someone is willing to give you free maybe-money, you might as well ask for as much maybe-money as they're willing to give you. And again, given profit, we can calculate the level curve of bets which return that profit.

Unsurprisingly, we find another linear relationship; it comes to. Note that in general, you can expect spread to be lower at lower odds. That's because odds are more sensitive to evidence when they're high than when they're low. There's a technical interpretation of that, but I'm just going to illustrate by example. The takeaway from this is that for qualifying bets, you should be looking at bets with low odds.

High odds have better returns, but the effect of low spread is much more significant, and low spread comes with low odds. I want to explore one more question: how does profit depend on commission? When laying bets, you become the bookmaker. Of course, not everyone doing this is a student or a parent of a newborn child. The vast majority of matched bettors are Average Joes that just want a little more financial freedom. With just one or two days of getting into the swing of things you will be well on your way to that super-sweet risk-free betting profit.

We choose the bookmaker and the minimum odds we need to bet on in the oddsmatcher filters and it gives us a range of good choices for bets. The lay odds of this result are 2. Note: You can easily switch between fractional and decimal odds on all bookmakers, usually on any page, or your account settings if not.

You always want to switch to decimal odds when matched betting. Using a lay betting calculator we have a free one on the site , we simply input the information we already have to calculate what our lay stake should be:. The calculator then tells us exactly what our lay stake should be. A qualifying loss is the small amount of money you lose when matched betting in order to unlock a free bet. It is a very small investment for a much larger financial reward.

We repeat the same process again, using the oddsmatcher to find us a bet at slightly higher odds. We decide to place this bet on Watford. The oddsmatcher is showing us that they have odds to win of 5. The lay odds are 5. And we know this profit before the match even kicks off, irrespective of the result. The next stage of this is to do it for real and earn yourself your first matched betting profits! Scared to make the jump? I know exactly how you feel — I was in exactly the same position once myself.

Step 1. Everything is broken down step-by-step and it has been used by thousands of beginner matched bettors already. Step 2. I was already signed up to a massive 17 bookmaker sites before I started. There are usually different bookmakers to complete sign-up offers on at any one time. Step 3. Most people spend between minutes on matched betting per day. The more time you put in, the more you earn.

Generally speaking, you probably need around 15 minutes to get one bet on. A great idea is to track the time you put in and the profit you make at the end of the month and then work out your own hourly rate. The majority of people are skeptical when they first hear of matched betting.

As more and more people try it out, more people learn how profitable it is and go on to tell their friends and family about it, spreading the word at rapid rates. This helps more people to become educated about the process and its legitimacy via word of mouth. There are currently tens of thousands of people in the UK that are actively matched betting every month. It was only a few years ago that I thought matched betting was a scam. My friends and family thought it was a scam too.

In fact, some of my family members particularly the older ones still think it must be a scam even now. It took me a reasonable amount of time to really do the research and actually get started because I was such a non-believer. As soon as you have a free shot at covering one of the teams, horses, whatevers , the very simple maths works in your favour.

You can lock-in a profit as soon as you have a free bet — i. Matched betting has been quite a well kept secret when you consider the amount of money that can be made doing it. It is is entirely legal. Firstly, there is a rise in competition between bookmakers. These bookmakers such as William Hill, Bet, Paddy Power and many more run promotions in order to try to attract both new and repeat business.

The more promotions there are, the more profitable matched betting becomes. No one is able to magically wrap their heads around all of this in an instant. And yes, the first version of my spreadsheet was terrible! Just look at my first spreadsheet pictured below. Matched betting works best when you are able to invest in completing multiple offers at once. This comes once you have built up your bankroll. This is probably music to many of your ears; match betting is completely tax-free in the UK.

There is absolutely no risk involved in matched betting when done correctly. Looking like a mug punter to a bookmaker is essential for long-term profits. Therefore, we only teach those based in the UK. You will learn how to place bets during the process if necessary, and all bets are found for you via simple-to-use software. Many people that start matched betting have never placed a bet in their lives and many more have no interest in sport whatsoever.

One of the biggest tips is learn how to change the odds formats on bookmaker sites and switch them to decimal odds. Usually, a free bet will either be credited to your account either instantly or after your bet finishes. You will see it in your account when you go to place your next bet. Within the bet slip, you will see the option to either use your own money or use the free bet that has been credited to your account.

However, if you do win into the bookmaker account, we do recommend placing at least one mug bet before withdrawing. If you do want to make a good amount of money over a longer period of time, you should start as you mean to go on with looking after your accounts as well as you can.

Bookmakers can run a simple search to see who has used a sign-up offer, withdrawn and never returned. Continuing to use your current bank account should not be a problem and does allow you to start betting a little quicker than setting a new one up. If you wish to apply for a loan or mortgage, having hundreds of betting deposits may look suspicious. They just care that we are. Plenty of people manage to still get their loan or mortgage with these transactions on their statement, but it may be wise to avoid a potential tricky conversation in the future by simply opening a new bank account for your matched betting activity.

However, once I started placing the bets for myself and tracking the profit, everything fell into place straight away. Just get stuck in and you everything will start to become clear. This post was written by Luke Jordan. Luke founded Beating Betting at the start of and ran the site until February He is passionate about entrepreneurship, marketing and video creation.

I believe the laws in the Netherlands are a bit stricter than in the UK, and there are fewer options of betting websites. Is it still possible to do matched betting in the Netherlands? Hi Luke Thanks for this great guide. Does this mean that you can no longer do matched betting as much or make as much money? Hi Jody, I was doing this for many years before this outcome.

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We also have a free matched betting spreadsheet, although it's much easier to use our Profit Tracker tool! Qualifying bet and welcome bet formulas. a) Profit if back. The easiest and most effective matched betting spreadsheet available The last 7 minutes covers the refunds offfer, multi bet offers, daily offers. Matched Betting Spreadsheet - Free Bet Calculation. There are three buttons on the matched betting calculator. The Today button will enter today's date into the.